Well, this is our weekly market alert video for the week ended October 2, 2020. And as if this year was not fraught with enough bad news, we just found out that President Trump has been diagnosed with COVID. So we want to talk about the effect that we see this is going to have on the stock market and also on the economy, and on our prospects for our investments and all of that. So, you know obviously, at this point, all our well wishes are for the President to not have terrible repercussions from this, that he has a swift recovery, that he remains healthy and that he gets past this as quickly as possible. One of the things that we’ve always talked about with you is that investors don’t like uncertainty, for the most part.
You know, when you invest, you want to have a certain confidence that what you’re doing is going to work out; and if there are a lot of variables that are unknown to you, then that uncertainty may make you not invest or may make you get out of things that you’re already in. So, certainly the President having COVID is an uncertainty producer; and because of that, we’ve seen volatility in the markets. That certainly that’s to be expected. So, there’s a weird kind of reverse dynamic that seems to have come from this, and that is that because of this news, there’s additional pressure on Mnuchin and Pelosi to come up with a stimulus package as soon as possible. So, as we’ve been documenting for you and reporting to you over the last several months, we believe that the outcome of the election is less important to the economy and to the stock market than is the presidential election outcome. It is the package stimulus that consumers who have lost their job will get. The reason for that is that 70 percent of our economy is driven by consumption; and if 30-40 million people are not consuming, that will drive the economy down. If that happens, profits will fall, stock prices will fall, and all of that will follow. So, again, this is terrible news. Whether you like Donald Trump or not, you have to hope that he is going to recover from this safely.
So, this isn’t good news, but we will see. Even if the worst were to happen, is that going to cause the economy itself to go into a worse recession than it already is.? It’s all about, in our view, the stimulus package and whether we get it or not. At this point, it appears that because of this news, there’s more pressure to have a package. From that standpoint and from the stock market and the economy as we see it, that’s actually in a backward way good news. So, today as I look, as I record this, the market is down as uncertainty would certainly dictate. When people are uncertain, they sell, but we think that a package coming forth from Congress will override that and potentially even bring the markets to new high—the Dow and S&P. So, the key thing here is let us worry about this so that you don’t have to. We have our Invest and Protect™ philosophy always; and so, if we see that it’s going to tank and become dangerous to your financial well-being, we will take action to avert that—and rest assured that that’s the case.