Hello, this is our weekly Market Alert video for the week ending November 19, 2021. I hope this video this email reaches you and you’re healthy, wealthy, and wise as we’re leading into Thanksgiving next week. We have so much to be thankful for. As a firm, from my perspective, and everybody here in the RPOA family, we are most thankful for you, our amazing clients. You have given us the responsibility to be your partner in retirement, and we take that responsibility very seriously. We are eternally grateful to you. Without you, we’d be nowhere, and we are very aware of that and honored to be able to serve you—and, of course, we hope you have financial peace of mind knowing we will always do whatever we can to help make your money last as long as you do so you can live your second childhood without parental supervision and not worry about all this boring financial stuff!
Having said that, you know, one of the jokes that I’ve said over the years is that if you don’t listen to what we have to say, you do it at your own peril. One of the things we’ve noticed that didn’t seem to be getting much media attention was that there was another COVID-19 variant in China that is causing them to shut down entire provinces over. As we look at history, we know these variants seem to start in China and then make their way through Russia. Russia has also been shutting down parts of their country. Then the variants seme to make their way through Europe, which we’re seeing now. There have been spikes in Germany, and it looks like there will be new lockdowns in Europe.
Then the variants make their way to the United States, so, to us, it seemed obvious, but the media and the markets didn’t seem to be paying much attention to it. Certainly, over the last week we’ve seen this has now become something people are paying attention to. So, we believe we’re the only source you need, watch this video, listen to our podcasts, and that’s all you need to do. By the way, be sure you subscribe to this video if you haven’t already. It’s easy. Just click on the subscribe link in YouTube.
So, where do we go from here? Well, essentially, we’re going to repeat what we said last week because we think it’s still relevant—and that is it’s going to be a rough winter. There’s this new variant that is unfortunately going to come to the United States. It will likely be very damaging to people’s health and create a whole new wave of people dying, which is never a good thing. Also, it’s going to be coupled with the high energy prices we’re seeing, and with people having to heat their homes during the winter is going to cost them a lot of money. That’s going to take away from their spending power. As we all know, retailers make most of their money for the year over the Christmas season—and if they don’t have the consumer buying during all of that, that could be problematic.
So, we see a lot of volatility ahead, potentially, and some downward pressure heading into the end of the year. But again, we don’t see it as being what’s going to be the new recession, the new big, bad bear market. This is kind of a repeat, we think of what happened in September. As you may recall, September was the worst the worst September in decades, and it was driven because we had the Delta variant. We had the threat of the economic impact of the supply chain issues. So, this is possibly a repeat of
what happened in September. But again, as with September, we see us coming out of it in a positive way.
Overall, our forecast is still good. We will be working on our Fearless Forecast for next year, and I’ll have that for you early in 2022. For right now, we think the first half of next year next year should be positive, so we’re looking forward to that.
In the meantime, I want to wish all of you a very happy Thanksgiving. We want to worry about all of this so that you don’t have to. And of course, as you know, we don’t have a crystal ball that works. We do have a crystal ball. I have one right over there—but I haven’t found the on switch for it yet. I don’t know how to turn it on, so, I don’t rely on it.
We could be wrong and bad things could come in the markets and we could see a big, bad bear market happen. Should that be the case, you can rest assured knowing that we have our Invest and Protect Strategy™ in place, and we will take action to protect when and if we need to. I encourage you to bring friends, family, and business associates into the fold so we can help protect them as well.
With the market at an all-time high, we all know there’s the possibility it could go down rapidly, and we want to help as many people as we can. So, bring your friends to us. We want to help protect them as well.
Happy Thanksgiving again and thank you for watching this video. We will talk soon.