Transcript

Hello, and welcome to our market alert video for today, which is September 9, 2022. And I want to take a moment, before we start talking about his boring financial stuff, I want to take a moment and talk about Queen Elizabeth who passed. And, you know, as I’ve been watching all of the analysis and the media and all of this stuff, one thing that I think that has been lost and all these conversations about is the king is going to rule like the queen. Did you know what his policy is going to be? Camilla is going to be a Queen Consort, whatever that is. And so, we have all this talk about this, and that, but I think what’s been lost in all of this is that Charles lost his mother. And you know, I lost my mother 11 years ago, and as I think about the pain and the sadness that he must be feeling, it made me feel that too, and remembered my mom. And it actually brought tears to my eyes. So, our heart goes out to the royal family for their loss. And Charles, you know, he lost his mother. So, we hope we wish him well. And we also hope that what he said in his speech is true. And that is that Queen Elizabeth, is taken away on the wings of angels. That’s a very pleasant thought. And I hope it’s true.

So, let’s talk about what’s going on. By the way, I’m wearing a flower shirt here, because I am in California, in Los Angeles. I’m here for our client appreciation event. We’re going to be visiting with our clients. And so, we’re looking forward to that. We’re expecting 3 or 400 clients to be attending. So, it’s going to be a great time. And also, you may notice this is a virtual background, you may notice my shoulder right here is doing weird things. The technology is good, but it’s not perfect yet. So, I’m actually not in my office. That’s true.

But anyway, you know, bear markets go through four phases. And the first phase is it goes through a period of anxiety. And if you look at the major bear markets, going back to the Great Depression in the 40s, and 50s, there seems to be one every decade. And of course, Y2K and 2008. There’s a period at the beginning of the bear market, which is the anxiety phase. And the anxiety phase comes with a big drop in the market. And of course, this year, we saw that the first six months of this year as the worst start to a year, perhaps ever, but certainly in many decades. And, you know, our strategy, our Invest and Protect strategy is designed to detect that anxiety phase and get us out and tell us to get out of all stocks. And that’s why it did several months ago, and we counseled our clients. And we said, you know, it’s time to get out of stocks. It’s the same thing that happened in November of 2007, a year before the Lehman collapse, but certainly there was a big drop that went through May of 2008.

And then there was the denial phase, which we believe was what happened here in July. So, the denial phase is, you know, things aren’t as bad guys Calm down, the Feds going to save us, you know. You’re overreacting. This is a buying opportunity. And so, there’s a lot of in denial basically. And so, there’s a huge wave of what’s called a bear market rally, where you get big buying. And in the big, bad bears historically, what’s happened is that they rally, that denial phase has brought with it a rise that recouped 50% of the losses that happened during the anxiety phase. Well, guess what, this year, that’s exactly what happened. July was such a big rise, it recaptured about half the losses that happened in January through June. So, it appears right now that this bear market is behaving like the other major bear markets. The fear phase comes after that. And what happens there is that there’s a realization that maybe things really are as bad as we think they are. And we are in denial. And maybe we should be getting out and protecting ourselves from big losses coming.

Now this year, we think the fear phase was triggered and began when the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, came out and said, guys, I don’t know what you guys are, why you guys aren’t getting this, we’re going to raise interest rates, even if it causes a recession. And you guys need to get ready for pain and unemployment. They said it in so many words, and he reiterated it about a week ago. So, when the fear phase kicks in, you see a lot of selling.

And then eventually it leads to the panic phase where even the people that were hanging on for dear life and thinking it’s all going to turn finally give up and they panic and there’s a big sell. And when that happens, that’s when these bear markets are over. So, I’m going to ask you, where do you think we are in those phases? Do you think that we are in the panic and fear phase yet? Do you think it already happened? Or do you think we’re in the denial phase? We believe that we’re at the end of the denial phase. It’s still lingering. We saw this week the market was up. But we think that we could see significant losses here going forward, potentially. And it would not surprise us.

If the Dow didn’t drop another 20- 25% from here, and we’re not alone. JP Morgan, Bank of America, many of the big investment houses feel the same way. So, my question to you is, if you experienced that kind of a loss, if that happened to you, would that change your plans to retire? Would that change your plans? If you are retired, and you’re planning that trip to Europe? Or whatever it is that you wanted to do? Would that change your life? Potentially? And what if it took years to recover? Like 2008? And Y2K did, then how does that change what your plans were for your retirement and all the things you wanted to do? And so, we don’t want that for you. That’s why we have our Invest and Protect strategy.

So, what I encourage you to do is visit with one of our retirement planners, get a second opinion, take a look at how we do things, how we manage money, all the services that we provide for insurance and your taxes, and, you know, social security, planning all of that. And we’ll build a plan for you at no charge or obligation. And, and if you like what you see, fantastic, and if you don’t, that’s fine, too. We’ll part friends. But at least you’ll get a second opinion. And you’ll see if maybe what you’re doing is not what you should be. And if you’re invested right now, we think you should be out. We have counseled our clients to be out of all stocks, and to be out of all medium and long-term bonds, because we think they’re going to lose money as the Fed continues to raise interest rates.

So that’s where we are now. Our website is rpoa.com. And I encourage you to go there and click on meet with an advisor and we’ll visit with you virtually or in person. And as I said, we’ll part friends regardless of what happens. So, thank you for watching this video. Please share it with as many of your friends and associates as you can. We want to help as many people as we can. Our goal is that we feel it’s a noble obligation. And so, if you can help them out, you’ll be doing them a favor as well. So, thanks for watching this video and we’ll talk soon.