This is the market alert video for today, March 24, 2020, and we have the hope for a big stimulus package to come out of the Congress and the Senate, and it looks like it’s going to be on the order of $2 trillion, and there’s a lot of optimism about that and how that’s going to help. And the markets, the Dow and S&P, rallied quite a bit today based on that news. This is great, and we believe it is needed, but we need to take things into historical perspective before everybody gets too excited. This is very reminiscent of 2008 when the government stepped in. You may recall the campaign was going on between Barak Obama and McCain, and they suspended their campaigns, and they went up to Washington, and they were in all those meetings, and they came out with all the stimuluses, gigantic stimulus package. And after the stimulus package, what happened was that the market actually, from October 27 through November 4, rallied; the S&P rallied 19%. It went up 19%. But then, when things continued to get worse, then it fell 33% from there over the next four months. So, I think we need to be very careful in getting too excited about how much the Congress can do with a stimulus package. What I think they’re trying to do, and it’s the right thing to do, is to bridge the gap between here and where there is a solution to the health problem, and keep the economy going during that time until people can go back to work. That’s the goal.
So, the month of April is going to be extremely important because one of the biggest concerns is that you’ve got mortgage payments, you’ve got rent payments, so the entire real estate industry gets paid at the beginning of the month, or at the end of the month. And so, this next two, three weeks are going to be very, very telling, in terms of what’s going to happen. Our concern is that if you put a thousand dollars in people’s hands, which the government is talking about, yes, that’s good, but if you’re somebody that has no job right now and you’re renting and you just got a thousand dollars from the government, do you buy food and feed your family or do you pay your rent? It’s a difficult, difficult decision. I don’t know that everybody’s going to use that money for that purpose. And so, the effect that the government is looking for may actually not happen. We’ll have to see. So, therefore, even though this is a good thing, we need a bridge — the government needs to get involved and help workers. We agree with what they’re doing; we’ve got to keep historical context in looking at it, and understand that the market in 2008, despite all the efforts — the cumulative effect of it still caused the markets to continue to go down, despite that. It helped, but it didn’t stop it.
So, the wheels that are in motion right now are very strong, in our view, and we haven’t seen what’s going to happen in other countries. If this gets bad enough, we could see some of the smaller, the more economically at-risk countries, default on their debt or something like that. And if that were to happen, then this thing would start, we believe — it would circle the globe, and it would come back to get us. So, what we’re doing is helping our country, but what other countries are about to experience with all of this, we don’t know, especially the more vulnerable ones. And if they have financial difficulty, we’re having enough trouble bailing ourselves out; I don’t know where the money’s going to come from to do that, and that could ignite a whole other thing.
So, not to pour water, not to rain on the parade, we do think that it is a good thing. We’re optimistic. We think this is going to end, and we’re going to come out on the other side, and hopefully the economy will not have been damaged so much that we can recover quickly. But we don’t believe that this is over by any means. There’s still at least the month of April, in our view, to get through before we have any clarity about where this is going to go. So, for now, all I can tell you is we are so thankful that we have our strategy and that we are not sitting in the markets right now. Despite the rally we saw today, it is still a very, very risky place, we believe, and therefore we’re happy that you are not in that and that you are safely in the money market fund and not experiencing the losses that we think are going to come, and that have already come, since we did sell.
So, we’re very thankful to you for having us be your retirement planner, for guiding you through these difficult, very difficult financial times. We hope that all of you are safe. We hope that you are well, that none of you are experiencing any symptoms or that any of you have contracted the virus, and we wish you well. We love you, and we are fully operational. We can do everything that we could do before this all happened. We are doing it now; we’re just doing it remotely. But that’s okay. We will get it done and take care business for you. So, if you need anything, call us; we are available. Email us; we are available. Anything you need done, you need money, we’ll get it to you. We can do whatever needs to happen for you. We can continue to do business.
So again, thank you so much and another appeal; we want to help as many people as possible. If you have any friends or family that are suffering in all of this right now, send them our way, and we will give them all the advice that we can, and we won’t charge them, and there’s no obligation. We want to help as many people during this time as we can. This is our expertise, so our social duty is to help as many people as we can. That’s what we’re doing to help society and to help the economy and help people.
So, once again, thank you so much for watching this video, and we will talk soon.